Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 18

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV–TSC Backa Topola

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 December 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Gradski stadion, Subotica

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV		TSC Backa Topola
5	Shots	14
1	Shots on target	3
4	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	5
10	Offsides	1
29%	Possession	71%
245	Passes	619
145	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 0.87 · TSC Backa Topola 1.79. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 5 · TSC Backa Topola 14; on target 1 and 3.
TSC Backa Topola kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

S. Jovanović→

3.81

yellows per match

0.04

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.4%: “TSC Backa Topola to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.87 for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV, 1.79 for TSC Backa Topola.
The highest double chance value is 83.7% (X2 — draw or TSC Backa Topola win).
These values were computed from 672 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win16.3%

Draw24.3%

TSC Backa Topola to win59.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,775 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV lead at half-time10.7%

Level at half-time38.8%

TSC Backa Topola lead at half-time50.5%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ahead or level49.5%

12 — not level at half-time61.2%

X2 — level or TSC Backa Topola ahead89.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 672 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 13Actual: 16
TSC Backa Topola: at least 15Actual: 13

Corners

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 3Actual: 5
TSC Backa Topola: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score0.87

Attack: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: TSC Backa Topola concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals TSC Backa Topola score1.79

Attack: TSC Backa Topola score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%0–111.8%0–211.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.