Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 17

FK Partizan–Jedinstvo Ub

3–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 30 November 2024 at 13:55
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Partizana, Beograd

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

46'FK PartizanB. Natcho (assist: S. Kovač)
49'FK PartizanN. Nikolić (assist: A. Kalulu)
53'FK PartizanZ. Ibrahim (assist: A. Kalulu)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Partizan		Jedinstvo Ub
21	Shots	10
9	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	1
3	Offsides	3
66%	Possession	34%
629	Passes	325
540	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Partizan 2.70 · Jedinstvo Ub 0.59. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots FK Partizan 21 · Jedinstvo Ub 10; on target 9 and 2.
FK Partizan kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

A. Stojanović→

2.68

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 82.8%: “FK Partizan to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 12.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.70 for FK Partizan, 0.59 for Jedinstvo Ub.
The highest double chance value is 95.3% (1X — FK Partizan win or draw).
These values were computed from 664 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Partizan to win82.8%

Draw12.5%

Jedinstvo Ub to win4.7%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 481 of 572 predictions were correct (84.1%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

FK Partizan lead at half-time53.5%

Level at half-time35.1%

Jedinstvo Ub lead at half-time11.4%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Partizan ahead or level88.6%

12 — not level at half-time64.9%

X2 — level or Jedinstvo Ub ahead46.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 664 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Partizan: at least 13Actual: 8
Jedinstvo Ub: at least 14Actual: 7

Corners

FK Partizan: at least 6Actual: 6
Jedinstvo Ub: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Partizan score2.70

Attack: FK Partizan score above the league average (44% more).

Opponent's defence: Jedinstvo Ub concede 32% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.70 goals.

How many goals Jedinstvo Ub score0.59

Attack: Jedinstvo Ub score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FK Partizan's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.59 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.0%3–012.8%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.