Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 17

Tekstilac Odžaci–OFK Beograd

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 29 November 2024 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava, Bačka Palanka

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'Tekstilac OdžaciNemanja Kojčić (assist: I. Davidović)
68'Tekstilac OdžaciP. Barac (assist: I. Davidović)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Tekstilac Odžaci		OFK Beograd
7	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	6
6	Shots inside the box	6
6	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	7
1	Offsides	7
44%	Possession	56%
352	Passes	443
238	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Tekstilac Odžaci 0.95 · OFK Beograd 1.49. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Tekstilac Odžaci 7 · OFK Beograd 11; on target 5 and 6.
OFK Beograd kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

L. Lukić→

4.63

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.4%: “OFK Beograd to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.95 for Tekstilac Odžaci, 1.49 for OFK Beograd.
The highest double chance value is 77.3% (X2 — draw or OFK Beograd win).
These values were computed from 661 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Tekstilac Odžaci to win22.7%

Draw28.0%

OFK Beograd to win49.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,071 of 4,397 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

27	Fouls	10

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Tekstilac Odžaci lead at half-time22.2%

Level at half-time44.8%

OFK Beograd lead at half-time33.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Tekstilac Odžaci ahead or level67.0%

12 — not level at half-time55.2%

X2 — level or OFK Beograd ahead77.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 661 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Tekstilac Odžaci: at least 16Actual: 27
OFK Beograd: at least 14Actual: 10

Corners

Tekstilac Odžaci: at least 3Actual: 3
OFK Beograd: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Tekstilac Odžaci score0.95

Attack: Tekstilac Odžaci score below the league average (42% fewer).

Opponent's defence: OFK Beograd's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals OFK Beograd score1.49

Attack: OFK Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tekstilac Odžaci's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%0–112.2%1–210.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.