Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 16

FK Partizan–Napredak

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 24 November 2024 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Partizana, Beograd

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 15%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

89'NapredakUroš Ignjatović · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Partizan		Napredak
14	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
0	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
63%	Possession	37%
601	Passes	364
503	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Partizan 2.48 · Napredak 0.68. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots FK Partizan 14 · Napredak 12; on target 4 and 5.
FK Partizan kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

S. Ostraćanin→

3.82

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 77.7%: “FK Partizan to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.48 for FK Partizan, 0.68 for Napredak.
The highest double chance value is 93.1% (1X — FK Partizan win or draw).
These values were computed from 657 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Partizan to win77.7%

Draw15.3%

Napredak to win6.9%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 735 of 908 predictions were correct (80.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	18

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,095 of 4,440 predictions were correct (47.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — FK Partizan win or draw93.1%

12 — any result other than a draw84.7%

X2 — draw or Napredak win22.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (15.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

FK Partizan lead at half-time54.9%

Level at half-time34.6%

Napredak lead at half-time10.5%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Partizan ahead or level89.5%

12 — not level at half-time65.4%

X2 — level or Napredak ahead45.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 657 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Partizan: at least 13Actual: 8
Napredak: at least 14Actual: 18

Corners

FK Partizan: at least 6
Napredak: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals62.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,731 of 2,756 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 51.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Partizan score2.48

Attack: FK Partizan score above the league average (49% more).

Opponent's defence: Napredak's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Napredak score0.68

Attack: Napredak score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FK Partizan's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.68 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.4%3–011.2%2–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 657 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 82 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.