Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 16

OFK Beograd–Mladost Lucani

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 24 November 2024 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion pod Kraljevicom, Zaječar

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
OFK Beograd		Mladost Lucani
14	Shots	7
3	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
64%	Possession	36%
640	Passes	359
565	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: OFK Beograd 1.74 · Mladost Lucani 1.00. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots OFK Beograd 14 · Mladost Lucani 7; on target 3 and 3.
OFK Beograd kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

D. Matić→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.6%: “OFK Beograd to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.74 for OFK Beograd, 1.00 for Mladost Lucani.
The highest double chance value is 79.9% (1X — OFK Beograd win or draw).
These values were computed from 656 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

OFK Beograd to win54.6%

Draw25.3%

Mladost Lucani to win20.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	20

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

OFK Beograd lead at half-time28.5%

Level at half-time42.0%

Mladost Lucani lead at half-time29.6%

First-half double chance

1X — OFK Beograd ahead or level70.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.0%

X2 — level or Mladost Lucani ahead71.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 656 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

OFK Beograd: at least 14Actual: 13
Mladost Lucani: at least 14Actual: 20

Corners

OFK Beograd: at least 5Actual: 5
Mladost Lucani: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals OFK Beograd score1.74

Attack: OFK Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Mladost Lucani's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mladost Lucani score1.00

Attack: Mladost Lucani score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: OFK Beograd's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%2–110.8%1–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.