Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 16

Vojvodina–Tekstilac Odžaci

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 23 November 2024 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Karađorđe Stadium, Novi Sad

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 17%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vojvodina		Tekstilac Odžaci
13	Shots	5
4	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	2
6	Offsides	0
57%	Possession	43%
442	Passes	348
339	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vojvodina 2.26 · Tekstilac Odžaci 0.60. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Vojvodina 13 · Tekstilac Odžaci 5; on target 4 and 1.
Vojvodina kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

S. Jeknić→

4.82

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 76.0%: “Vojvodina to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.26 for Vojvodina, 0.60 for Tekstilac Odžaci.
The highest double chance value is 92.9% (1X — Vojvodina win or draw).
These values were computed from 655 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vojvodina to win76.0%

Draw16.9%

Tekstilac Odžaci to win7.1%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 735 of 908 predictions were correct (80.9%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	34

1	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Vojvodina lead at half-time44.4%

Level at half-time40.3%

Tekstilac Odžaci lead at half-time15.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Vojvodina ahead or level84.7%

12 — not level at half-time59.7%

X2 — level or Tekstilac Odžaci ahead55.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 655 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Vojvodina: at least 12Actual: 14
Tekstilac Odžaci: at least 15Actual: 34

Corners

Vojvodina: at least 4Actual: 3
Tekstilac Odžaci: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vojvodina score2.26

Attack: Vojvodina score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Tekstilac Odžaci's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tekstilac Odžaci score0.60

Attack: Tekstilac Odžaci score below the league average (39% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Vojvodina concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.60 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–015.2%1–012.2%3–011.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.