Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 16

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV–Novi Pazar

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 23 November 2024 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Gradski stadion, Subotica

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'Novi PazarA. Ljajić (assist: Sead Islamović)
47'FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRVS. Tomović (assist: A. Todoroski)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV		Novi Pazar
10	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	3
3	Offsides	1
38%	Possession	62%
340	Passes	581
255	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1.12 · Novi Pazar 1.42. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 10 · Novi Pazar 13; on target 5 and 3.
Novi Pazar kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

M. Mitić→

3.97

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.0%: “Novi Pazar to win”. Second comes “FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.12 for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV, 1.42 for Novi Pazar.
The highest double chance value is 71.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 654 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win28.6%

Draw28.4%

Novi Pazar to win43.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,357 of 5,300 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV lead at half-time12.5%

Level at half-time40.5%

Novi Pazar lead at half-time47.0%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ahead or level53.0%

12 — not level at half-time59.5%

X2 — level or Novi Pazar ahead87.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 654 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 13Actual: 13
Novi Pazar: at least 15Actual: 13

Corners

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 4Actual: 3
Novi Pazar: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score1.12

Attack: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score below the league average (37% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Novi Pazar's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Novi Pazar score1.42

Attack: Novi Pazar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%0–110.3%1–29.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.