Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 15

IMT Novi Beograd–Cukaricki

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 November 2024 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Lagator, Belgrade

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'CukarickiMarko Docić
87'CukarickiMarko Docić · red card
90+3'IMT Novi BeogradV. Radočaj

Match statistics

Match statistics
IMT Novi Beograd		Cukaricki
13	Shots	8
1	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	1
1	Goalkeeper saves	0
5	Corners	1
3	Offsides	0
48%	Possession	52%
372	Passes	432
279	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: IMT Novi Beograd 1.26 · Cukaricki 1.61. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots IMT Novi Beograd 13 · Cukaricki 8; on target 1 and 2.

Referee

N. Radaković→

4.03

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.9%: “Cukaricki to win”. Second comes “IMT Novi Beograd to win” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.26 for IMT Novi Beograd, 1.61 for Cukaricki.
The highest double chance value is 73.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 646 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

IMT Novi Beograd to win28.6%

Draw26.4%

Cukaricki to win44.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,357 of 5,300 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

21	Fouls	17

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–1

IMT Novi Beograd lead at half-time18.8%

Level at half-time38.8%

Cukaricki lead at half-time42.4%

First-half double chance

1X — IMT Novi Beograd ahead or level57.6%

12 — not level at half-time61.2%

X2 — level or Cukaricki ahead81.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 646 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

IMT Novi Beograd: at least 15Actual: 21
Cukaricki: at least 13Actual: 17

Corners

IMT Novi Beograd: at least 4Actual: 5
Cukaricki: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals IMT Novi Beograd score1.26

Attack: IMT Novi Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cukaricki's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cukaricki score1.61

Attack: Cukaricki score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: IMT Novi Beograd's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%1–210.2%0–18.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.