Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 15

Radnicki NIS–Novi Pazar

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 November 2024 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Gradski Stadion Čair, Niš

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'Novi PazarA. Adeshina
85'Radnicki NISA. Vojnović (assist: M. Petkovic)
88'Radnicki NISP. Ivelja (assist: Trivante Stewart)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Radnicki NIS		Novi Pazar
22	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	8
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	7
0	Offsides	0
64%	Possession	36%
499	Passes	290
430	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radnicki NIS 1.64 · Novi Pazar 1.28. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Radnicki NIS 22 · Novi Pazar 10; on target 5 and 1.
Radnicki NIS kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

M. Ivković→

3.43

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.1%: “Radnicki NIS to win”. Second comes “Novi Pazar to win” at 28.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.64 for Radnicki NIS, 1.28 for Novi Pazar.
The highest double chance value is 73.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 645 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radnicki NIS to win45.1%

Draw26.2%

Novi Pazar to win28.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,071 of 4,397 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Radnicki NIS lead at half-time29.1%

Level at half-time41.5%

Novi Pazar lead at half-time29.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Radnicki NIS ahead or level70.6%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or Novi Pazar ahead70.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 645 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radnicki NIS: at least 15Actual: 12
Novi Pazar: at least 14Actual: 13

Corners

Radnicki NIS: at least 4Actual: 6
Novi Pazar: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radnicki NIS score1.64

Attack: Radnicki NIS score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Novi Pazar's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Novi Pazar score1.28

Attack: Novi Pazar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Radnicki NIS's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%2–110.2%1–07.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.