Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 14

Mladost Lucani–FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 4 November 2024 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Mladost Stadium Lučani, Lučani

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Mladost Lucani		FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
10	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	7
0	Offsides	2
52%	Possession	48%
504	Passes	464
421	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Mladost Lucani 1.49 · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1.05. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Mladost Lucani 10 · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 13; on target 4 and 2.

Referee

M. Ivković→

3.44

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.7%: “Mladost Lucani to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Mladost Lucani, 1.05 for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV.
The highest double chance value is 74.6% (1X — Mladost Lucani win or draw).
These values were computed from 642 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Mladost Lucani to win46.7%

Draw27.9%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win25.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Mladost Lucani lead at half-time53.8%

Level at half-time37.2%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV lead at half-time9.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Mladost Lucani ahead or level91.0%

12 — not level at half-time62.8%

X2 — level or FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ahead46.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 642 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Mladost Lucani: at least 14Actual: 13
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 13Actual: 17

Corners

Mladost Lucani: at least 3Actual: 4
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Mladost Lucani score1.49

Attack: Mladost Lucani score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score1.05

Attack: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Mladost Lucani's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–010.9%2–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.