Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 14

Radnicki 1923–Napredak

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 November 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Čika Dača, Kragujevac

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

87'Radnicki 1923Bojan Adžić

Match statistics

Match statistics
Radnicki 1923		Napredak
23	Shots	6
7	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
12	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
65%	Possession	35%
392	Passes	217
323	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radnicki 1923 2.37 · Napredak 0.72. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Radnicki 1923 23 · Napredak 6; on target 7 and 3.
Radnicki 1923 kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

M. Marković→

3.59

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 74.9%: “Radnicki 1923 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.37 for Radnicki 1923, 0.72 for Napredak.
The highest double chance value is 91.7% (1X — Radnicki 1923 win or draw).
These values were computed from 639 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radnicki 1923 to win74.9%

Draw16.8%

Napredak to win8.3%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 913 of 1,223 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,095 of 4,440 predictions were correct (47.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Radnicki 1923 win or draw91.7%

12 — any result other than a draw83.2%

X2 — draw or Napredak win25.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (16.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Radnicki 1923 lead at half-time58.4%

Level at half-time32.3%

Napredak lead at half-time9.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Radnicki 1923 ahead or level90.6%

12 — not level at half-time67.7%

X2 — level or Napredak ahead41.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 639 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radnicki 1923: at least 17Actual: 12
Napredak: at least 14Actual: 15

Corners

Radnicki 1923: at least 4Actual: 12
Napredak: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals60.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,731 of 2,756 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radnicki 1923 score2.37

Attack: Radnicki 1923 score above the league average (36% more).

Opponent's defence: Napredak's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Napredak score0.72

Attack: Napredak score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Radnicki 1923's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.72 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.1%3–010.4%2–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 639 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 80 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.