Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 13

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV–FK Crvena Zvezda

1–5

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 26 October 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Gradski stadion, Subotica

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'FK Crvena ZvezdaSilas
41'FK Crvena ZvezdaM. Rodić (assist: L. Ilic)
51'FK Crvena ZvezdaC. Ndiaye (penalty)
58'FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRVL. Bijelovic
62'FK Crvena ZvezdaMilson (assist: Silas)
72'FK Crvena ZvezdaA. Katai (assist: N. Radonjic)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 0.41 · FK Crvena Zvezda 2.60. On the pitch: 1-5.

Referee

N. Radaković→

4.07

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 85.3%: “FK Crvena Zvezda to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 11.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.41 for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV, 2.60 for FK Crvena Zvezda.
The highest double chance value is 96.8% (X2 — draw or FK Crvena Zvezda win).
These values were computed from 632 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win3.2%

Draw11.5%

FK Crvena Zvezda to win85.3%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 256 of 293 predictions were correct (87.4%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–2

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV lead at half-time3.9%

Level at half-time31.5%

FK Crvena Zvezda lead at half-time64.6%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ahead or level35.4%

12 — not level at half-time68.5%

X2 — level or FK Crvena Zvezda ahead96.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 632 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 14
FK Crvena Zvezda: at least 13

Corners

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 3
FK Crvena Zvezda: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score0.41

Attack: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score below the league average (36% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FK Crvena Zvezda concede 55% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Crvena Zvezda score2.60

Attack: FK Crvena Zvezda score 102% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.60 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–217.3%0–315.1%0–112.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.