Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 13

IMT Novi Beograd–Tekstilac Odžaci

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 25 October 2024 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Lagator, Belgrade

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'IMT Novi BeogradA. Stevanovic (assist: Irfan Zulfić)
61'IMT Novi BeogradM. Jovic (assist: Irfan Zulfić)
87'IMT Novi BeogradN. Glišić (assist: M. Do Couto)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: IMT Novi Beograd 1.48 · Tekstilac Odžaci 1.11. On the pitch: 3-0.

Referee

A. Stojanović→

2.78

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.9%: “IMT Novi Beograd to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.48 for IMT Novi Beograd, 1.11 for Tekstilac Odžaci.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (1X — IMT Novi Beograd win or draw).
These values were computed from 629 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

IMT Novi Beograd to win44.9%

Draw27.9%

Tekstilac Odžaci to win27.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 1–0

IMT Novi Beograd lead at half-time26.3%

Level at half-time45.8%

Tekstilac Odžaci lead at half-time27.9%

First-half double chance

1X — IMT Novi Beograd ahead or level72.1%

12 — not level at half-time54.2%

X2 — level or Tekstilac Odžaci ahead73.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 629 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

IMT Novi Beograd: at least 14
Tekstilac Odžaci: at least 15

Corners

IMT Novi Beograd: at least 4
Tekstilac Odžaci: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals IMT Novi Beograd score1.48

Attack: IMT Novi Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tekstilac Odžaci's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tekstilac Odžaci score1.11

Attack: Tekstilac Odžaci score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: IMT Novi Beograd's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–010.2%2–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.