Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 12

Jedinstvo Ub–Vojvodina

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 19 October 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Dragan Dzajić, Ub

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 21%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'Jedinstvo UbD. Jevtić
84'VojvodinaM. Veličković

Match statistics

Match statistics
Jedinstvo Ub		Vojvodina
9	Shots	20
3	Shots on target	7
7	Shots inside the box	12
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	4
1	Offsides	2
35%	Possession	65%
285	Passes	514
181	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Jedinstvo Ub 0.84 · Vojvodina 2.07. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Jedinstvo Ub 9 · Vojvodina 20; on target 3 and 7.
Vojvodina kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

A. Živković→

4.75

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.3%: “Vojvodina to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.84 for Jedinstvo Ub, 2.07 for Vojvodina.
The highest double chance value is 87.2% (X2 — draw or Vojvodina win).
These values were computed from 626 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Jedinstvo Ub to win12.8%

Draw20.9%

Vojvodina to win66.3%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,040 of 1,528 predictions were correct (68.1%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 3,617 of 7,015 predictions were correct (51.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Jedinstvo Ub win or draw33.7%

12 — any result other than a draw79.1%

X2 — draw or Vojvodina win87.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (20.9%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Jedinstvo Ub lead at half-time16.6%

Level at half-time38.9%

Vojvodina lead at half-time44.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Jedinstvo Ub ahead or level55.5%

12 — not level at half-time61.1%

X2 — level or Vojvodina ahead83.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 626 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Jedinstvo Ub: at least 14Actual: 12
Vojvodina: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Jedinstvo Ub: at least 3Actual: 5
Vojvodina: at least 5Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals56.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,357 of 4,139 predictions were correct (56.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 51.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Jedinstvo Ub score0.84

Attack: Jedinstvo Ub score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Vojvodina concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.84 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vojvodina score2.07

Attack: Vojvodina score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Jedinstvo Ub concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.07 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–211.9%1–210.8%1–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 626 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 11 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.