Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 12

Cukaricki–Napredak

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 18 October 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion na Banovom brdu, Beograd

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 19%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cukaricki		Napredak
17	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	3
1	Offsides	0
70%	Possession	30%
573	Passes	257
489	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cukaricki 2.15 · Napredak 0.74. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Cukaricki 17 · Napredak 13; on target 5 and 3.
Cukaricki kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

S. Jeknić→

4.60

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.4%: “Cukaricki to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.15 for Cukaricki, 0.74 for Napredak.
The highest double chance value is 89.8% (1X — Cukaricki win or draw).
These values were computed from 622 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cukaricki to win70.4%

Draw19.4%

Napredak to win10.2%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,221 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

17	Fouls	15

5	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,094 of 4,438 predictions were correct (47.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Cukaricki win or draw89.8%

12 — any result other than a draw80.6%

X2 — draw or Napredak win29.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (19.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Cukaricki lead at half-time53.7%

Level at half-time34.8%

Napredak lead at half-time11.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Cukaricki ahead or level88.5%

12 — not level at half-time65.2%

X2 — level or Napredak ahead46.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 622 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cukaricki: at least 13Actual: 17
Napredak: at least 14Actual: 15

Corners

Cukaricki: at least 5Actual: 7
Napredak: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals56.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,356 of 4,136 predictions were correct (57.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cukaricki score2.15

Attack: Cukaricki score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Napredak concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Napredak score0.74

Attack: Napredak score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cukaricki's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.74 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.2%1–011.2%2–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 622 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 78 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.