Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 11

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV–Vojvodina

0–4

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 October 2024 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Gradski stadion, Subotica

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'VojvodinaB. Yusuf (penalty)
27'FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRVV. Prijovic · red card
39'VojvodinaC. Zady Sery (assist: N. Petrović)
59'VojvodinaC. Zady Sery (assist: M. Butean)
73'VojvodinaD. Kokanović (assist: S. Đorđević)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV		Vojvodina
6	Shots	16
3	Shots on target	8
4	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
32%	Possession	68%
294	Passes	644
227	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 0.94 · Vojvodina 1.72. On the pitch: 0-4.
Shots FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 6 · Vojvodina 16; on target 3 and 8.
Vojvodina kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

D. Trifković→

4.30

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.7%: “Vojvodina to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.94 for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV, 1.72 for Vojvodina.
The highest double chance value is 81.0% (X2 — draw or Vojvodina win).
These values were computed from 618 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win19.0%

Draw25.3%

Vojvodina to win55.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,655 of 2,780 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	19

1	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV lead at half-time13.3%

Level at half-time40.4%

Vojvodina lead at half-time46.3%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ahead or level53.7%

12 — not level at half-time59.6%

X2 — level or Vojvodina ahead86.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 618 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 13Actual: 6
Vojvodina: at least 12Actual: 19

Corners

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 4Actual: 5
Vojvodina: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score0.94

Attack: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Vojvodina concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vojvodina score1.72

Attack: Vojvodina score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%0–111.2%1–210.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.