Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 11

Napredak–Novi Pazar

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 October 2024 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Mladost, Kruševac

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'Novi PazarR. Antwi (assist: A. Ljajić)
49'NapredakN. Bastajic
90+2'NapredakF. Krstic (assist: Stefan Bukorac)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Napredak		Novi Pazar
9	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	6
3	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	7
0	Offsides	1
48%	Possession	52%
363	Passes	397
293	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Napredak 1.17 · Novi Pazar 1.48. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Napredak 9 · Novi Pazar 13; on target 4 and 6.

Referee

L. Lukić→

4.47

yellows per match

0.05

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.6%: “Novi Pazar to win”. Second comes “Napredak to win” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.17 for Napredak, 1.48 for Novi Pazar.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 617 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Napredak to win28.6%

Draw27.8%

Novi Pazar to win43.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	15

6	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Napredak lead at half-time23.8%

Level at half-time42.6%

Novi Pazar lead at half-time33.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Napredak ahead or level66.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.4%

X2 — level or Novi Pazar ahead76.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 617 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Napredak: at least 14Actual: 16
Novi Pazar: at least 15Actual: 15

Corners

Napredak: at least 3Actual: 5
Novi Pazar: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Napredak score1.17

Attack: Napredak score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Novi Pazar's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Novi Pazar score1.48

Attack: Novi Pazar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Napredak concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–29.9%0–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.