Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 7

IMT Novi Beograd–Radnicki NIS

3–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 30 August 2024 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Lagator, Belgrade

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

31'IMT Novi BeogradIrfan Zulfić
53'Radnicki NISI. Yurukov (assist: Trivante Stewart)
61'IMT Novi BeogradA. Stevanovic (assist: N. Krstic)
66'IMT Novi BeogradAntoine Batisse (assist: Y. Court)

Match statistics

Match statistics
IMT Novi Beograd		Radnicki NIS
11	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	4
3	Offsides	0
35%	Possession	65%
254	Passes	480
166	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: IMT Novi Beograd 1.44 · Radnicki NIS 1.12. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots IMT Novi Beograd 11 · Radnicki NIS 13; on target 5 and 3.
Radnicki NIS kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

S. Ostraćanin→

3.81

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.6%: “IMT Novi Beograd to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for IMT Novi Beograd, 1.12 for Radnicki NIS.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (1X — IMT Novi Beograd win or draw).
These values were computed from 579 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

IMT Novi Beograd to win43.6%

Draw28.3%

Radnicki NIS to win28.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,357 of 5,300 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

21	Fouls	23

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

IMT Novi Beograd lead at half-time32.2%

Level at half-time43.9%

Radnicki NIS lead at half-time24.0%

First-half double chance

1X — IMT Novi Beograd ahead or level76.0%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Radnicki NIS ahead67.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 579 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

IMT Novi Beograd: at least 14Actual: 21
Radnicki NIS: at least 14Actual: 23

Corners

IMT Novi Beograd: at least 4Actual: 7
Radnicki NIS: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals IMT Novi Beograd score1.44

Attack: IMT Novi Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Radnicki NIS's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Radnicki NIS score1.12

Attack: Radnicki NIS score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: IMT Novi Beograd's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–010.3%2–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.