1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 36

Radomlje–Primorje

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 23 May 2025 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Športni Park, Domžale

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 2.9% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

49'PrimorjeR. Murillo

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radomlje 1.47 · Primorje 1.41. On the pitch: 0-1.

Referee

A. Matković→

4.25

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.0%: “Radomlje to win”. Second comes “Primorje to win” at 35.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Radomlje, 1.41 for Primorje.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 534 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radomlje to win38.0%

Draw26.9%

Primorje to win35.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–0

Radomlje lead at half-time32.2%

Level at half-time41.8%

Primorje lead at half-time26.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Radomlje ahead or level74.0%

12 — not level at half-time58.2%

X2 — level or Primorje ahead67.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 533 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radomlje: at least 11
Primorje: at least 11

Corners

Radomlje: at least 4
Primorje: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,356 of 4,137 predictions were correct (56.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radomlje score1.47

Attack: Radomlje score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Primorje concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Primorje score1.41

Attack: Primorje score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Radomlje concede 28% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%2–19.3%1–28.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.