1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 35

Olimpija Ljubljana–Radomlje

5–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 May 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Stožice, Ljubljana

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'Olimpija LjubljanaMarcel Ratnik
28'Olimpija LjubljanaA. Tamm
61'Olimpija LjubljanaDino Kojić
71'RadomljeR. Ljutic · red card
72'Olimpija LjubljanaMarcel Ratnik
84'Olimpija LjubljanaM. Pedreno (penalty)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Olimpija Ljubljana 2.40 · Radomlje 0.55. On the pitch: 5-0.

Referee

M. Matoša→

3.85

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 79.5%: “Olimpija Ljubljana to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 14.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.40 for Olimpija Ljubljana, 0.55 for Radomlje.
The highest double chance value is 94.4% (1X — Olimpija Ljubljana win or draw).
These values were computed from 529 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Olimpija Ljubljana to win79.5%

Draw14.9%

Radomlje to win5.6%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 735 of 908 predictions were correct (80.9%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 2–0

Olimpija Ljubljana lead at half-time44.5%

Level at half-time42.2%

Radomlje lead at half-time13.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Olimpija Ljubljana ahead or level86.8%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Radomlje ahead55.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 528 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Olimpija Ljubljana: at least 11
Radomlje: at least 11

Corners

Olimpija Ljubljana: at least 5
Radomlje: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Olimpija Ljubljana score2.40

Attack: Olimpija Ljubljana score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Radomlje concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Radomlje score0.55

Attack: Radomlje score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Olimpija Ljubljana concede 40% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.55 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–015.7%3–012.5%1–011.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.