1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 34

NK Domzale–Nafta

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 11 May 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Športni Park, Domžale

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'NK DomzaleL. Mlakar
78'NK DomzaleL. Mlakar

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: NK Domzale 1.65 · Nafta 1.19. On the pitch: 2-0.

Referee

D. Šmajc→

4.39

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.5%: “NK Domzale to win”. Second comes “Nafta to win” at 26.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.65 for NK Domzale, 1.19 for Nafta.
The highest double chance value is 73.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 527 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

NK Domzale to win47.5%

Draw26.3%

Nafta to win26.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,071 of 4,397 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — NK Domzale win or draw73.7%

12 — any result other than a draw73.7%

X2 — draw or Nafta win52.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.3%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

NK Domzale lead at half-time32.4%

Level at half-time44.0%

Nafta lead at half-time23.6%

First-half double chance

1X — NK Domzale ahead or level76.4%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or Nafta ahead67.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 526 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

NK Domzale: at least 12
Nafta: at least 11

Corners

NK Domzale: at least 4
Nafta: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,683 of 4,996 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals NK Domzale score1.65

Attack: NK Domzale score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Nafta concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nafta score1.19

Attack: Nafta score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: NK Domzale concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–110.4%1–08.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.