1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 30

Bravo–Maribor

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 April 2025 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Stožice, Ljubljana

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

55'BravoMatic Ivanšek
90+4'MariborJ. Repas

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bravo 1.09 · Maribor 1.56. On the pitch: 1-1.

Referee

M. Antič→

4.97

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.8%: “Maribor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.09 for Bravo, 1.56 for Maribor.
The highest double chance value is 74.9% (X2 — draw or Maribor win).
These values were computed from 504 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bravo to win25.1%

Draw27.2%

Maribor to win47.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,071 of 4,397 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

First half

Actual: 0–0

Bravo lead at half-time17.1%

Level at half-time38.5%

Maribor lead at half-time44.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Bravo ahead or level55.6%

12 — not level at half-time61.5%

X2 — level or Maribor ahead82.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 503 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bravo: at least 11
Maribor: at least 10

Corners

Bravo: at least 4
Maribor: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,319 of 4,971 predictions were correct (46.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bravo score1.09

Attack: Bravo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maribor concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maribor score1.56

Attack: Maribor score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Bravo's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–210.3%0–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.