1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 30

Koper–Primorje

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 April 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: ŠRC Bonifika, Koper

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

37'KoperT. Domgjoni
62'PrimorjeH. Kadrić (penalty)
78'PrimorjeF. Shatri · red card
90+2'PrimorjeT. Klemencic · red card

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Koper 1.93 · Primorje 0.90. On the pitch: 1-1.

Referee

R. Obrenović→

4.25

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.7%: “Koper to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.93 for Koper, 0.90 for Primorje.
The highest double chance value is 84.5% (1X — Koper win or draw).
These values were computed from 502 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Koper to win61.7%

Draw22.8%

Primorje to win15.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

First half

Actual: 1–0

Koper lead at half-time45.1%

Level at half-time38.6%

Primorje lead at half-time16.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Koper ahead or level83.8%

12 — not level at half-time61.4%

X2 — level or Primorje ahead54.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 501 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Koper: at least 12
Primorje: at least 11

Corners

Koper: at least 4
Primorje: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Koper score1.93

Attack: Koper score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Primorje's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.93 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Primorje score0.90

Attack: Primorje score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Koper concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%2–011.2%2–110.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.