1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 29

Radomlje–Nafta

4–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 8 April 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Športni Park, Domžale

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'RadomljeJ. Martincic
45'RadomljeĐ. Gordić
46'RadomljeA. Pogacar
64'NaftaR. Pirtovsek
90+3'RadomljeM. Malensek

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radomlje 1.41 · Nafta 1.26. On the pitch: 4-1.

Referee

M. Matoša→

3.89

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.7%: “Radomlje to win”. Second comes “Nafta to win” at 32.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for Radomlje, 1.26 for Nafta.
The highest double chance value is 72.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 497 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radomlje to win39.7%

Draw28.0%

Nafta to win32.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,093 of 5,647 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

First half

Actual: 2–0

Radomlje lead at half-time32.8%

Level at half-time44.3%

Nafta lead at half-time22.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Radomlje ahead or level77.1%

12 — not level at half-time55.7%

X2 — level or Nafta ahead67.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 496 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radomlje: at least 11
Nafta: at least 11

Corners

Radomlje: at least 4
Nafta: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals50.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,683 of 4,996 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radomlje score1.41

Attack: Radomlje score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Nafta concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nafta score1.26

Attack: Nafta score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Radomlje concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%2–19.5%1–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.