1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 28

NK Domzale–Maribor

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 April 2025 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Športni Park, Domžale

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 15%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

49'MariborN. Grlić · red card
69'NK DomzaleN. Perc

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: NK Domzale 0.91 · Maribor 2.01. On the pitch: 1-0.

Referee

A. Matković→

4.00

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.4%: “Maribor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.91 for NK Domzale, 2.01 for Maribor.
The highest double chance value is 85.4% (X2 — draw or Maribor win).
These values were computed from 496 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

NK Domzale to win14.6%

Draw21.9%

Maribor to win63.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

Double chance

1X — NK Domzale win or draw36.6%

12 — any result other than a draw78.1%

X2 — draw or Maribor win85.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

NK Domzale lead at half-time7.6%

Level at half-time32.7%

Maribor lead at half-time59.6%

First-half double chance

1X — NK Domzale ahead or level40.4%

12 — not level at half-time67.3%

X2 — level or Maribor ahead92.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 495 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

NK Domzale: at least 12
Maribor: at least 11

Corners

NK Domzale: at least 4
Maribor: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals56.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,356 of 4,137 predictions were correct (56.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals NK Domzale score0.91

Attack: NK Domzale score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maribor concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maribor score2.01

Attack: Maribor score above the league average (37% more).

Opponent's defence: NK Domzale concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.01 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–211.2%1–111.1%1–211.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.