1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 28

Bravo–Celje

1–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 April 2025 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Stožice, Ljubljana

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 1.4% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'BravoGhislain Vénuste Baboula
32'CeljeA. Matko
38'CeljeA. Matko

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bravo 1.50 · Celje 1.47. On the pitch: 1-2.

Referee

D. Šmajc→

4.25

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.4%: “Bravo to win”. Second comes “Celje to win” at 36.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for Bravo, 1.47 for Celje.
The highest double chance value is 73.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 495 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bravo to win37.4%

Draw26.5%

Celje to win36.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,093 of 5,647 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

First half

Actual: 1–2

Bravo lead at half-time29.1%

Level at half-time40.8%

Celje lead at half-time30.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Bravo ahead or level69.9%

12 — not level at half-time59.2%

X2 — level or Celje ahead70.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 494 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bravo: at least 10
Celje: at least 10

Corners

Bravo: at least 4
Celje: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals57.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,357 of 4,139 predictions were correct (56.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bravo score1.50

Attack: Bravo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Celje's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Celje score1.47

Attack: Celje score above the league average (40% more).

Opponent's defence: Bravo's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%2–19.3%1–29.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.