1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 25

Nafta–NK Domzale

3–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 13 March 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Športni park Lendava, Lendava

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 2.6% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'NaftaDarko Hrka
23'NK DomzaleH. Vučkić
27'NaftaA. Dragoner
48'NK DomzaleD. Šturm (penalty)
84'NaftaL. Hempt (own goal)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nafta 1.26 · NK Domzale 1.21. On the pitch: 3-2.

Referee

S. Vinčić→

4.18

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.7%: “Nafta to win”. Second comes “NK Domzale to win” at 34.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.26 for Nafta, 1.21 for NK Domzale.
The highest double chance value is 70.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 482 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nafta to win36.7%

Draw29.3%

NK Domzale to win34.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 2–1

Nafta lead at half-time29.9%

Level at half-time45.3%

NK Domzale lead at half-time24.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Nafta ahead or level75.2%

12 — not level at half-time54.7%

X2 — level or NK Domzale ahead70.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 481 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Nafta: at least 11
NK Domzale: at least 11

Corners

Nafta: at least 5
NK Domzale: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nafta score1.26

Attack: Nafta score below the league average (36% fewer).

Opponent's defence: NK Domzale concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals NK Domzale score1.21

Attack: NK Domzale score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Nafta's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–09.8%0–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.