1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 25

Radomlje–Bravo

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 11 March 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Športni Park, Domžale

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 21%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

39'RadomljeA. Pogacar
66'RadomljeN. Kukovec

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radomlje 0.98 · Bravo 1.63. On the pitch: 2-0.

Referee

D. Balažič→

3.08

yellows per match

0.04

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.3%: “Bravo to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.98 for Radomlje, 1.63 for Bravo.
The highest double chance value is 78.8% (X2 — draw or Bravo win).
These values were computed from 479 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radomlje to win21.2%

Draw26.4%

Bravo to win52.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

Double chance

1X — Radomlje win or draw47.7%

12 — any result other than a draw73.6%

X2 — draw or Bravo win78.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.4%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Radomlje lead at half-time17.8%

Level at half-time40.7%

Bravo lead at half-time41.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Radomlje ahead or level58.5%

12 — not level at half-time59.3%

X2 — level or Bravo ahead82.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 478 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radomlje: at least 11
Bravo: at least 11

Corners

Radomlje: at least 4
Bravo: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals48.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,317 of 4,968 predictions were correct (46.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radomlje score0.98

Attack: Radomlje score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bravo concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bravo score1.63

Attack: Bravo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Radomlje concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%0–111.2%1–210.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.