1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 24

Bravo–Nafta

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 March 2025 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Športni Park Šiška, Ljubljana

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 21%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'NaftaA. Pihler
51'BravoMatej Poplatnik

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bravo 1.94 · Nafta 0.63. On the pitch: 1-1.

Referee

M. Antič→

5.03

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.1%: “Bravo to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.94 for Bravo, 0.63 for Nafta.
The highest double chance value is 90.1% (1X — Bravo win or draw).
These values were computed from 474 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bravo to win69.1%

Draw21.0%

Nafta to win9.9%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,040 of 1,528 predictions were correct (68.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

First half

Actual: 0–1

Bravo lead at half-time53.2%

Level at half-time37.7%

Nafta lead at half-time9.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Bravo ahead or level90.9%

12 — not level at half-time62.3%

X2 — level or Nafta ahead46.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 473 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bravo: at least 11
Nafta: at least 11

Corners

Bravo: at least 5
Nafta: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bravo score1.94

Attack: Bravo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Nafta's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nafta score0.63

Attack: Nafta score below the league average (38% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bravo concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.63 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–015.0%1–014.3%1–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.