1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 21

Radomlje–NK Domzale

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 17 February 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Športni Park, Domžale

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'RadomljeĐ. Gordić
45+3'RadomljeM. Barnabas · red card

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radomlje 1.58 · NK Domzale 1.04. On the pitch: 1-0.

Referee

R. Obrenović→

4.19

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.4%: “Radomlje to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for Radomlje, 1.04 for NK Domzale.
The highest double chance value is 76.4% (1X — Radomlje win or draw).
These values were computed from 462 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radomlje to win49.4%

Draw27.0%

NK Domzale to win23.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

Double chance

1X — Radomlje win or draw76.4%

12 — any result other than a draw73.0%

X2 — draw or NK Domzale win50.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.0%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Radomlje lead at half-time35.9%

Level at half-time44.5%

NK Domzale lead at half-time19.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Radomlje ahead or level80.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.5%

X2 — level or NK Domzale ahead64.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 461 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radomlje: at least 11
NK Domzale: at least 11

Corners

Radomlje: at least 5
NK Domzale: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,319 of 4,970 predictions were correct (46.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radomlje score1.58

Attack: Radomlje score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: NK Domzale concede 29% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals NK Domzale score1.04

Attack: NK Domzale score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Radomlje's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%1–010.6%2–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.