1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 20

Celje–Maribor

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 February 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Z'dežele, Celje

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'MariborB. Tetteh
52'MariborB. Elmaz
64'CeljeArmandas Kučys

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Celje 1.28 · Maribor 1.54. On the pitch: 1-2.

Referee

D. Šmajc→

4.18

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.7%: “Maribor to win”. Second comes “Celje to win” at 30.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for Celje, 1.54 for Maribor.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 457 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Celje to win30.3%

Draw27.0%

Maribor to win42.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

First half

Actual: 0–1

Celje lead at half-time15.1%

Level at half-time40.9%

Maribor lead at half-time44.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Celje ahead or level56.0%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or Maribor ahead84.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 456 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Celje: at least 11
Maribor: at least 10

Corners

Celje: at least 4
Maribor: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,680 of 4,992 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Celje score1.28

Attack: Celje score above the league average (45% more).

Opponent's defence: Maribor concede 36% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.28 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Maribor score1.54

Attack: Maribor score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: Celje's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%1–29.9%0–18.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.