1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 14

NK Domzale–Primorje

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 November 2024 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Športni Park, Domžale

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 0.9% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

84'NK DomzaleM. Lorber · red card

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: NK Domzale 1.46 · Primorje 1.48. On the pitch: 0-0.

Referee

A. Matković→

3.76

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.2%: “Primorje to win”. Second comes “NK Domzale to win” at 36.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.46 for NK Domzale, 1.48 for Primorje.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 424 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

NK Domzale to win36.2%

Draw26.6%

Primorje to win37.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–0

NK Domzale lead at half-time15.9%

Level at half-time38.3%

Primorje lead at half-time45.8%

First-half double chance

1X — NK Domzale ahead or level54.2%

12 — not level at half-time61.7%

X2 — level or Primorje ahead84.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 423 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

NK Domzale: at least 12
Primorje: at least 11

Corners

NK Domzale: at least 4
Primorje: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals57.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,356 of 4,137 predictions were correct (56.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals NK Domzale score1.46

Attack: NK Domzale score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Primorje concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Primorje score1.48

Attack: Primorje score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: NK Domzale concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%1–29.2%2–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.