1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 10

Bravo–Celje

3–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 September 2024 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Stožice, Ljubljana

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'BravoMatej Poplatnik (penalty)
23'CeljeD. Zec
78'BravoM. Tučić
82'CeljeA. N'Guessan (own goal)
90+1'BravoM. Tučić

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bravo 1.17 · Celje 1.32. On the pitch: 3-2.

Referee

A. Matković→

3.70

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.2%: “Celje to win”. Second comes “Bravo to win” at 31.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.17 for Bravo, 1.32 for Celje.
The highest double chance value is 70.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 405 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bravo to win31.7%

Draw29.1%

Celje to win39.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

First half

Actual: 1–1

Bravo lead at half-time25.0%

Level at half-time45.5%

Celje lead at half-time29.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Bravo ahead or level70.5%

12 — not level at half-time54.5%

X2 — level or Celje ahead75.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 404 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bravo: at least 10
Celje: at least 10

Corners

Bravo: at least 4
Celje: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bravo score1.17

Attack: Bravo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Celje concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Celje score1.32

Attack: Celje score above the league average (47% more).

Opponent's defence: Bravo concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.32 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%0–110.1%1–29.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.