1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 5

Olimpija Ljubljana–Celje

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 18 August 2024 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Stožice, Ljubljana

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'Olimpija LjubljanaD. Pinto
21'CeljeEdmilson
51'Olimpija LjubljanaPedro Lucas
78'CeljeL. Menalo

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Olimpija Ljubljana 1.46 · Celje 1.32. On the pitch: 2-2.

Referee

A. Borošak→

3.80

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.6%: “Olimpija Ljubljana to win”. Second comes “Celje to win” at 33.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.46 for Olimpija Ljubljana, 1.32 for Celje.
The highest double chance value is 72.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 382 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Olimpija Ljubljana to win39.6%

Draw27.4%

Celje to win33.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,093 of 5,647 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 1–1

Olimpija Ljubljana lead at half-time27.0%

Level at half-time44.6%

Celje lead at half-time28.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Olimpija Ljubljana ahead or level71.5%

12 — not level at half-time55.4%

X2 — level or Celje ahead73.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 381 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Olimpija Ljubljana: at least 11
Celje: at least 11

Corners

Olimpija Ljubljana: at least 4
Celje: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Olimpija Ljubljana score1.46

Attack: Olimpija Ljubljana score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Celje concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Celje score1.32

Attack: Celje score above the league average (50% more).

Opponent's defence: Olimpija Ljubljana concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.32 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%2–19.5%1–28.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.