First League · Bulgaria · Finals

Botev Vratsa–Pirin Blagoevgrad

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 29 May 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Hristo Botev, Vratsa

Share on X

Goals and red cards

38'Botev VratsaD. Genov

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Botev Vratsa 1.03 · Pirin Blagoevgrad 0.89. On the pitch: 1-0.

Referee

V. Chinkov→

5.25

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.4%: “Botev Vratsa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 33.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.03 for Botev Vratsa, 0.89 for Pirin Blagoevgrad.
The highest double chance value is 70.8% (1X — Botev Vratsa win or draw).
These values were computed from 762 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Botev Vratsa to win37.4%

Draw33.4%

Pirin Blagoevgrad to win29.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Botev Vratsa win or draw70.8%

12 — any result other than a draw66.6%

X2 — draw or Pirin Blagoevgrad win62.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (33.4%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Botev Vratsa lead at half-time20.3%

Level at half-time46.7%

Pirin Blagoevgrad lead at half-time33.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Botev Vratsa ahead or level67.0%

12 — not level at half-time53.3%

X2 — level or Pirin Blagoevgrad ahead79.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 762 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Botev Vratsa: at least 12
Pirin Blagoevgrad: at least 10

Corners

Botev Vratsa: at least 6
Pirin Blagoevgrad: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Botev Vratsa score1.03

Attack: Botev Vratsa score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Pirin Blagoevgrad's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Pirin Blagoevgrad score0.89

Attack: Pirin Blagoevgrad score below the league average (52% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Botev Vratsa concede 42% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.6%1–014.5%0–014.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.