First League · Bulgaria · Relegation Round - 6

Hebar 1918–Botev Vratsa

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 20 May 2025 at 14:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Georgi Benkovski, Pazardzhik

Goals and red cards

15'Hebar 1918K. Dünnwald-Turan

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hebar 1918		Botev Vratsa
7	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	2
3	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	4
1	Offsides	2
38%	Possession	62%
203	Passes	451
143	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hebar 1918 1.41 · Botev Vratsa 1.03. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Hebar 1918 7 · Botev Vratsa 9; on target 2 and 2.
Botev Vratsa kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

D. Dimitrov→

3.90

yellows per match

0.05

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.1%: “Hebar 1918 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for Hebar 1918, 1.03 for Botev Vratsa.
The highest double chance value is 73.8% (1X — Hebar 1918 win or draw).
These values were computed from 760 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hebar 1918 to win45.1%

Draw28.7%

Botev Vratsa to win26.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	10

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Hebar 1918 win or draw73.8%

12 — any result other than a draw71.3%

X2 — draw or Botev Vratsa win54.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.7%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Hebar 1918 lead at half-time33.7%

Level at half-time46.3%

Botev Vratsa lead at half-time20.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Hebar 1918 ahead or level80.0%

12 — not level at half-time53.7%

X2 — level or Botev Vratsa ahead66.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 760 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hebar 1918: at least 12Actual: 18
Botev Vratsa: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Hebar 1918: at least 5Actual: 1
Botev Vratsa: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals44.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,621 of 3,745 predictions were correct (43.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 43.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hebar 1918 score1.41

Attack: Hebar 1918 score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Botev Vratsa concede 42% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Botev Vratsa score1.03

Attack: Botev Vratsa score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hebar 1918 concede 36% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%1–011.4%2–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.