First League · Bulgaria · Relegation Round - 6

CSKA 1948–Levski Krumovgrad

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 19 May 2025 at 14:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Vitosha, Bistrica

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Goals and red cards

72'CSKA 1948K. Eta
77'CSKA 1948B. Dimitrov

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: CSKA 1948 1.34 · Levski Krumovgrad 0.83. On the pitch: 2-0.

Referee

M. Velikov→

4.47

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.2%: “CSKA 1948 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for CSKA 1948, 0.83 for Levski Krumovgrad.
The highest double chance value is 78.1% (1X — CSKA 1948 win or draw).
These values were computed from 760 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

CSKA 1948 to win48.2%

Draw29.9%

Levski Krumovgrad to win21.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — CSKA 1948 win or draw78.1%

12 — any result other than a draw70.1%

X2 — draw or Levski Krumovgrad win51.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

CSKA 1948 lead at half-time36.8%

Level at half-time43.2%

Levski Krumovgrad lead at half-time20.0%

First-half double chance

1X — CSKA 1948 ahead or level80.0%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Levski Krumovgrad ahead63.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 760 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

CSKA 1948: at least 10
Levski Krumovgrad: at least 12

Corners

CSKA 1948: at least 5
Levski Krumovgrad: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals CSKA 1948 score1.34

Attack: CSKA 1948 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Levski Krumovgrad's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Levski Krumovgrad score0.83

Attack: Levski Krumovgrad score below the league average (36% fewer).

Opponent's defence: CSKA 1948's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.83 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.7%1–114.7%0–011.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.