First League · Bulgaria · Relegation Round - 5

Levski Krumovgrad–Slavia Sofia

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 15 May 2025 at 12:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex, Plovdiv

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Goals and red cards

30'Slavia SofiaI. Minchev (penalty)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Levski Krumovgrad 1.02 · Slavia Sofia 1.32. On the pitch: 0-1.

Referee

M. Pavlov→

5.45

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.8%: “Slavia Sofia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.02 for Levski Krumovgrad, 1.32 for Slavia Sofia.
The highest double chance value is 72.5% (X2 — draw or Slavia Sofia win).
These values were computed from 758 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Levski Krumovgrad to win27.5%

Draw29.7%

Slavia Sofia to win42.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Levski Krumovgrad win or draw57.2%

12 — any result other than a draw70.3%

X2 — draw or Slavia Sofia win72.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.7%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Levski Krumovgrad lead at half-time26.0%

Level at half-time45.1%

Slavia Sofia lead at half-time28.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Levski Krumovgrad ahead or level71.1%

12 — not level at half-time54.9%

X2 — level or Slavia Sofia ahead74.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 758 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Levski Krumovgrad: at least 11
Slavia Sofia: at least 12

Corners

Levski Krumovgrad: at least 4
Slavia Sofia: at least 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Levski Krumovgrad score1.02

Attack: Levski Krumovgrad score below the league average (36% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Slavia Sofia's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Slavia Sofia score1.32

Attack: Slavia Sofia score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Levski Krumovgrad's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%0–111.9%0–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.