First League · Bulgaria · Relegation Round - 4

Hebar 1918–Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 11 May 2025 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Georgi Benkovski, Pazardzhik

Goals and red cards

22'Hebar 1918N. Nikolaev
54'Lokomotiv PlovdivEfe Ali
72'Lokomotiv PlovdivD. Iliev

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hebar 1918		Lokomotiv Plovdiv
9	Shots	11
2	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	12
0	Offsides	4
45%	Possession	55%
284	Passes	396
223	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hebar 1918 1.08 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.18. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Hebar 1918 9 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 11; on target 2 and 4.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

M. Markov→

2.67

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.2%: “Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win”. Second comes “Hebar 1918 to win” at 32.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.08 for Hebar 1918, 1.18 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
The highest double chance value is 69.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 756 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hebar 1918 to win32.1%

Draw30.7%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win37.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Hebar 1918 lead at half-time28.9%

Level at half-time46.6%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv lead at half-time24.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Hebar 1918 ahead or level75.4%

12 — not level at half-time53.4%

X2 — level or Lokomotiv Plovdiv ahead71.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 756 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hebar 1918: at least 12Actual: 9
Lokomotiv Plovdiv: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Hebar 1918: at least 4Actual: 2
Lokomotiv Plovdiv: at least 4Actual: 12

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hebar 1918 score1.08

Attack: Hebar 1918 score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Lokomotiv Plovdiv's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lokomotiv Plovdiv score1.18

Attack: Lokomotiv Plovdiv score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hebar 1918 concede 35% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.4%0–111.5%1–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.