First League · Bulgaria · Relegation Round - 2

Hebar 1918–Levski Krumovgrad

1–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Thursday, 1 May 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Georgi Benkovski, Pazardzhik

Goals and red cards

18'Levski KrumovgradC. Itu
38'Levski KrumovgradC. Itu
79'Levski KrumovgradP. Guinari
88'Hebar 1918K. Dünnwald-Turan

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hebar 1918		Levski Krumovgrad
16	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	6
8	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	2
3	Offsides	1
63%	Possession	37%
464	Passes	247
375	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hebar 1918 1.06 · Levski Krumovgrad 1.05. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Hebar 1918 16 · Levski Krumovgrad 12; on target 5 and 6.
Hebar 1918 kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

S. Trenchev→

4.61

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 34.3%: “Hebar 1918 to win”. Second comes “Levski Krumovgrad to win” at 33.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.06 for Hebar 1918, 1.05 for Levski Krumovgrad.
The highest double chance value is 68.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 752 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hebar 1918 to win34.3%

Draw32.0%

Levski Krumovgrad to win33.7%

When the model has said 30–35% in the past, 2,835 of 9,041 predictions were correct (31.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Hebar 1918 lead at half-time26.1%

Level at half-time46.5%

Levski Krumovgrad lead at half-time27.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Hebar 1918 ahead or level72.6%

12 — not level at half-time53.5%

X2 — level or Levski Krumovgrad ahead73.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 752 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hebar 1918: at least 11Actual: 9
Levski Krumovgrad: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Hebar 1918: at least 5Actual: 7
Levski Krumovgrad: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hebar 1918 score1.06

Attack: Hebar 1918 score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Levski Krumovgrad's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Levski Krumovgrad score1.05

Attack: Levski Krumovgrad score below the league average (36% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hebar 1918 concede 34% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.6%1–012.1%0–112.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.