First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 30

CSKA 1948–Hebar 1918

1–3

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Monday, 21 April 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Vitosha, Bistrica

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 12%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'Hebar 1918S. Furtado (own goal)
26'Hebar 1918N. Makni
45+2'Hebar 1918Y. Guermouche
49'CSKA 1948Y. Serdiuk
82'Hebar 1918D. Pavlek · red card

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: CSKA 1948 1.81 · Hebar 1918 0.69. On the pitch: 1-3.

Referee

V. Valkov→

4.45

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.4%: “CSKA 1948 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.81 for CSKA 1948, 0.69 for Hebar 1918.
The highest double chance value is 87.6% (1X — CSKA 1948 win or draw).
These values were computed from 749 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

CSKA 1948 to win64.4%

Draw23.2%

Hebar 1918 to win12.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,325 of 2,113 predictions were correct (62.7%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–3

CSKA 1948 lead at half-time58.7%

Level at half-time35.5%

Hebar 1918 lead at half-time5.8%

First-half double chance

1X — CSKA 1948 ahead or level94.2%

12 — not level at half-time64.5%

X2 — level or Hebar 1918 ahead41.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 749 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

CSKA 1948: at least 10
Hebar 1918: at least 11

Corners

CSKA 1948: at least 5
Hebar 1918: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals CSKA 1948 score1.81

Attack: CSKA 1948 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hebar 1918 concede 35% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.81 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hebar 1918 score0.69

Attack: Hebar 1918 score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: CSKA 1948's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.69 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.2%2–013.9%1–111.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.