First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 30

Levski Krumovgrad–CSKA Sofia

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 18 April 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex, Plovdiv

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 17%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

53'Levski KrumovgradMomchil Tsvetanov (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Levski Krumovgrad		CSKA Sofia
6	Shots	32
2	Shots on target	8
3	Shots inside the box	13
8	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	11
1	Offsides	0
33%	Possession	67%
196	Passes	584
132	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Levski Krumovgrad 0.70 · CSKA Sofia 1.42. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Levski Krumovgrad 6 · CSKA Sofia 32; on target 2 and 8.
CSKA Sofia kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

K. Georgiev→

5.92

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.2%: “CSKA Sofia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.70 for Levski Krumovgrad, 1.42 for CSKA Sofia.
The highest double chance value is 82.9% (X2 — draw or CSKA Sofia win).
These values were computed from 744 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Levski Krumovgrad to win17.1%

Draw28.7%

CSKA Sofia to win54.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	6

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Levski Krumovgrad lead at half-time20.9%

Level at half-time46.7%

CSKA Sofia lead at half-time32.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Levski Krumovgrad ahead or level67.6%

12 — not level at half-time53.3%

X2 — level or CSKA Sofia ahead79.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 744 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Levski Krumovgrad: at least 11Actual: 12
CSKA Sofia: at least 11Actual: 6

Corners

Levski Krumovgrad: at least 3Actual: 2
CSKA Sofia: at least 6Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Levski Krumovgrad score0.70

Attack: Levski Krumovgrad score below the league average (38% fewer).

Opponent's defence: CSKA Sofia concede 30% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.70 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals CSKA Sofia score1.42

Attack: CSKA Sofia score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Levski Krumovgrad's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–116.6%1–113.7%0–212.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.