First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 29

Botev Plovdiv–Septemvri Sofia

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 April 2025 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Hristo Botev, Plovdiv

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 4.9% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

38'Botev PlovdivI. Popov
60'Botev PlovdivS. Akere
89'Botev PlovdivJ. Batigi

Match statistics

Match statistics
Botev Plovdiv		Septemvri Sofia
17	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	2
15	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	5
1	Offsides	2
56%	Possession	44%
486	Passes	388
415	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Botev Plovdiv 1.32 · Septemvri Sofia 1.22. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Botev Plovdiv 17 · Septemvri Sofia 9; on target 4 and 2.
Botev Plovdiv kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

M. Markov→

3.00

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.0%: “Botev Plovdiv to win”. Second comes “Septemvri Sofia to win” at 33.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Botev Plovdiv, 1.22 for Septemvri Sofia.
The highest double chance value is 71.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 736 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Botev Plovdiv to win38.0%

Draw28.8%

Septemvri Sofia to win33.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,093 of 5,647 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Botev Plovdiv lead at half-time36.7%

Level at half-time44.5%

Septemvri Sofia lead at half-time18.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Botev Plovdiv ahead or level81.2%

12 — not level at half-time55.5%

X2 — level or Septemvri Sofia ahead63.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 736 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Botev Plovdiv: at least 11Actual: 14
Septemvri Sofia: at least 9Actual: 14

Corners

Botev Plovdiv: at least 6Actual: 7
Septemvri Sofia: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Botev Plovdiv score1.32

Attack: Botev Plovdiv score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Septemvri Sofia concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Septemvri Sofia score1.22

Attack: Septemvri Sofia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Botev Plovdiv's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%1–09.4%2–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.