First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 29

Spartak Varna–Levski Krumovgrad

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 11 April 2025 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Spartak, Varna

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'Spartak VarnaA. Vutov

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Spartak Varna 1.34 · Levski Krumovgrad 0.89. On the pitch: 1-0.

Referee

D. Stalev→

4.60

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.8%: “Spartak Varna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Spartak Varna, 0.89 for Levski Krumovgrad.
The highest double chance value is 76.6% (1X — Spartak Varna win or draw).
These values were computed from 734 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Spartak Varna to win46.8%

Draw29.7%

Levski Krumovgrad to win23.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,071 of 4,397 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 1–0

Spartak Varna lead at half-time35.6%

Level at half-time43.9%

Levski Krumovgrad lead at half-time20.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Spartak Varna ahead or level79.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Levski Krumovgrad ahead64.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 734 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Spartak Varna: at least 10
Levski Krumovgrad: at least 13

Corners

Spartak Varna: at least 5
Levski Krumovgrad: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Spartak Varna score1.34

Attack: Spartak Varna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Levski Krumovgrad's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Levski Krumovgrad score0.89

Attack: Levski Krumovgrad score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Spartak Varna's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–013.8%0–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.