First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 28

Cherno More Varna–Botev Plovdiv

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 April 2025 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Ticha, Varna

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'Botev PlovdivA. Yordanov
58'Cherno More VarnaI. Isa

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cherno More Varna		Botev Plovdiv
20	Shots	9
8	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
3	Corners	4
6	Offsides	0
58%	Possession	42%
421	Passes	317
276	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cherno More Varna 1.46 · Botev Plovdiv 0.71. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Cherno More Varna 20 · Botev Plovdiv 9; on target 8 and 2.
Cherno More Varna kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

G. Ginchev→

5.28

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.0%: “Cherno More Varna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.46 for Cherno More Varna, 0.71 for Botev Plovdiv.
The highest double chance value is 83.2% (1X — Cherno More Varna win or draw).
These values were computed from 726 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cherno More Varna to win55.0%

Draw28.1%

Botev Plovdiv to win16.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,655 of 2,780 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Cherno More Varna lead at half-time40.6%

Level at half-time44.5%

Botev Plovdiv lead at half-time14.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Cherno More Varna ahead or level85.1%

12 — not level at half-time55.5%

X2 — level or Botev Plovdiv ahead59.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 726 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cherno More Varna: at least 10Actual: 10
Botev Plovdiv: at least 12Actual: 18

Corners

Cherno More Varna: at least 5Actual: 3
Botev Plovdiv: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cherno More Varna score1.46

Attack: Cherno More Varna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Botev Plovdiv's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Botev Plovdiv score0.71

Attack: Botev Plovdiv score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cherno More Varna concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.71 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–016.2%1–113.6%2–012.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.