First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 27

Botev Plovdiv–Beroe

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 2 April 2025 at 13:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Hristo Botev, Plovdiv

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Botev Plovdiv 1.20 · Beroe 1.09. On the pitch: 0-0.

Referee

K. Georgiev→

5.92

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.6%: “Botev Plovdiv to win”. Second comes “Beroe to win” at 31.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for Botev Plovdiv, 1.09 for Beroe.
The highest double chance value is 69.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 721 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Botev Plovdiv to win37.6%

Draw30.5%

Beroe to win31.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Botev Plovdiv win or draw68.1%

12 — any result other than a draw69.5%

X2 — draw or Beroe win62.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (30.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Botev Plovdiv lead at half-time26.3%

Level at half-time47.6%

Beroe lead at half-time26.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Botev Plovdiv ahead or level73.9%

12 — not level at half-time52.4%

X2 — level or Beroe ahead73.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 721 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Botev Plovdiv: at least 12
Beroe: at least 10

Corners

Botev Plovdiv: at least 5
Beroe: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Botev Plovdiv score1.20

Attack: Botev Plovdiv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Beroe's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Beroe score1.09

Attack: Beroe score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Botev Plovdiv's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%1–011.3%0–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.