First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 24

CSKA 1948–Lokomotiv Plovdiv

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 March 2025 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Vitosha, Bistrica

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

40'CSKA 1948P. Vitanov
61'Lokomotiv PlovdivDiogo Abreu
90+2'CSKA 1948P. Vitanov

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: CSKA 1948 1.29 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.03. On the pitch: 2-1.

Referee

K. Georgiev→

5.92

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.5%: “CSKA 1948 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for CSKA 1948, 1.03 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
The highest double chance value is 71.5% (1X — CSKA 1948 win or draw).
These values were computed from 695 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

CSKA 1948 to win41.5%

Draw29.9%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win28.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — CSKA 1948 win or draw71.5%

12 — any result other than a draw70.1%

X2 — draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv win58.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.9%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

CSKA 1948 lead at half-time35.3%

Level at half-time44.0%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv lead at half-time20.7%

First-half double chance

1X — CSKA 1948 ahead or level79.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or Lokomotiv Plovdiv ahead64.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 695 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

CSKA 1948: at least 11
Lokomotiv Plovdiv: at least 12

Corners

CSKA 1948: at least 4
Lokomotiv Plovdiv: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals CSKA 1948 score1.29

Attack: CSKA 1948 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lokomotiv Plovdiv's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lokomotiv Plovdiv score1.03

Attack: Lokomotiv Plovdiv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: CSKA 1948's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–011.9%0–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.