First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 24

Botev Vratsa–Levski Krumovgrad

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 7 March 2025 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Hristo Botev, Vratsa

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Botev Vratsa 0.81 · Levski Krumovgrad 1.41. On the pitch: 0-0.

Referee

S. Trenchev→

4.74

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.9%: “Levski Krumovgrad to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.81 for Botev Vratsa, 1.41 for Levski Krumovgrad.
The highest double chance value is 79.8% (X2 — draw or Levski Krumovgrad win).
These values were computed from 694 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Botev Vratsa to win20.2%

Draw28.9%

Levski Krumovgrad to win50.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Botev Vratsa win or draw49.1%

12 — any result other than a draw71.1%

X2 — draw or Levski Krumovgrad win79.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Botev Vratsa lead at half-time19.0%

Level at half-time46.2%

Levski Krumovgrad lead at half-time34.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Botev Vratsa ahead or level65.2%

12 — not level at half-time53.8%

X2 — level or Levski Krumovgrad ahead81.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 694 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Botev Vratsa: at least 11
Levski Krumovgrad: at least 14

Corners

Botev Vratsa: at least 5
Levski Krumovgrad: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Botev Vratsa score0.81

Attack: Botev Vratsa score below the league average (36% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Levski Krumovgrad's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.81 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Levski Krumovgrad score1.41

Attack: Levski Krumovgrad score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Botev Vratsa concede 60% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–114.7%1–114.3%0–211.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.