First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 22

Lokomotiv Sofia–Lokomotiv Plovdiv

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 February 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Lokomotiv, Sofia

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

65'Lokomotiv PlovdivJ. Lamy
83'Lokomotiv PlovdivPatryk Stępiński · red card

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lokomotiv Sofia 1.19 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.31. On the pitch: 0-1.

Referee

G. Ginchev→

5.22

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.3%: “Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win”. Second comes “Lokomotiv Sofia to win” at 32.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.19 for Lokomotiv Sofia, 1.31 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
The highest double chance value is 71.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 684 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lokomotiv Sofia to win32.6%

Draw29.0%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win38.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–0

Lokomotiv Sofia lead at half-time33.0%

Level at half-time42.8%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv lead at half-time24.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Lokomotiv Sofia ahead or level75.8%

12 — not level at half-time57.2%

X2 — level or Lokomotiv Plovdiv ahead67.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 684 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lokomotiv Sofia: at least 12
Lokomotiv Plovdiv: at least 12

Corners

Lokomotiv Sofia: at least 4
Lokomotiv Plovdiv: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lokomotiv Sofia score1.19

Attack: Lokomotiv Sofia score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Lokomotiv Plovdiv's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lokomotiv Plovdiv score1.31

Attack: Lokomotiv Plovdiv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lokomotiv Sofia concede 29% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%0–19.8%1–29.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.