First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 19

Hebar 1918–Arda Kardzhali

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 9 December 2024 at 12:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Georgi Benkovski, Pazardzhik

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

59'Arda KardzhaliB. Tsonev
62'Arda KardzhaliI. Tilev

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hebar 1918 0.97 · Arda Kardzhali 1.45. On the pitch: 0-2.

Referee

V. El Hatib→

5.24

yellows per match

0.28

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.9%: “Arda Kardzhali to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.97 for Hebar 1918, 1.45 for Arda Kardzhali.
The highest double chance value is 76.3% (X2 — draw or Arda Kardzhali win).
These values were computed from 659 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hebar 1918 to win23.7%

Draw28.4%

Arda Kardzhali to win47.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hebar 1918 win or draw52.1%

12 — any result other than a draw71.6%

X2 — draw or Arda Kardzhali win76.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hebar 1918 lead at half-time10.7%

Level at half-time41.1%

Arda Kardzhali lead at half-time48.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Hebar 1918 ahead or level51.8%

12 — not level at half-time58.9%

X2 — level or Arda Kardzhali ahead89.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 659 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hebar 1918: at least 11
Arda Kardzhali: at least 11

Corners

Hebar 1918: at least 3
Arda Kardzhali: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals43.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,619 of 3,742 predictions were correct (43.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 43.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hebar 1918 score0.97

Attack: Hebar 1918 score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Arda Kardzhali's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Arda Kardzhali score1.45

Attack: Arda Kardzhali score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hebar 1918 concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%0–112.2%1–210.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.